Minsk Agreement can be considered a success of Ukraine, which avoided adverse geopolitical concessions to Russia, but it will not bring lasting peace and will lead to disputes between Kiev and Moscow - evaluates the Centre for Eastern Studies.
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"Adopted in Minsk document gives Russia the opportunity to saddle Kiev responsibility for the likely failure of the agreement, while the filling is upodmiotawiac separatists. (...) It is expected that its full implementation is impossible, and the document itself will bring only a temporary halt in the ongoing conflict "- write Simon Kardas and Wojciech Kononczuk.
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They are positive about the fact that the agreement does not block the European integration of Ukraine, and does not oblige the federalization of the country and a high degree of autonomy of Donbass, with its own constitution for the whole of Donetsk and Lugansk circuits. They emphasize good for Kiev commitment to ceasefire and the creation of a buffer zone, as the lead military operations in recent weeks was growing financial burden for Ukraine.
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Analysts predict, however, a number of CES dispute between Ukraine and Russia on the background of the interpretation of the agreement. Unclear provisions concerning the actual future autonomy of Donetsk and Lugansk circuits, including the right to self-determination of the language, the appointment of judges and prosecutors, cross-border cooperation with Russia or the right to people's militia. "It may be that cross-border cooperation will be interpreted as the right region for economic integration with Russia, while the rebel troops will be formally 'militia folk' '- analysts warn. Also indicate that the pro-Russian separatists will have the opportunity to sabotage attempts to regain control of Kiev's 400-kilometer border with Russia Donbass, which is - in their opinion - the prospect of a distant and uncertain.
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The risk is also associated with the restoration of the Kiev agreed banking system in areas currently controlled by separatists, which aims to resume paying the salaries and pensions. "This point may be regarded as imposing obligations, but also the political responsibility for Kiev on the resolution of the deepening problems of an economic region (such as) unemployment, destroyed factories and so on." - Says the analysis.
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CES experts are of the opinion that agreed in Minsk amnesty for separatists may cause disputes in the Ukrainian parliament and society. The withdrawal of heavy equipment from the area of fighting for the Ukrainian side carries the danger of having to disarm their own units in the so-called. debalcewskim bag, which is the main point of resistance to the rebel forces and Russian troops.
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Studies also calculates tangible political benefits achieved by Russia.
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"Russia successfully put pressure on Western leaders (...) talks in Kiev and Moscow took place after the fact, when the Kremlin decided to escalation of hostilities in the Donbas. Russia has also begun to haunt the West still possible exacerbation of the conflict. The success of Moscow in the context is the manifestation of the serious divisions among Western states against the discussion of the possible supply of arms to Kiev. You should note that at the negotiating table again ran out of the US representative, which is part of Russian policy discussions on European security without Washington "- says the analysis.
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Moreover, according to analysts, joining the agreement Russia is trying to demonstrate a positive attitude in the hope of avoiding new sanctions of the West and the abolition already in force. "Unless a truce after the September separatists and Russia were accused of violating its terms, this time the consequence of breaking the agreement will be easier to blame Moscow Kiev" - experts. While adding that the implementation of the constitutional reform and the eastern regions of special status will require dialogue between Kiev and representatives of the pro-Russian rebels, giving Moscow a permanent instrument of indirect influence on the shape of the decision on the political changes in Ukraine.
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"Russia will not lose real control over the Donbas. The question of the use of the region as an instrument of influence on Ukraine remains open and will be subject to tension. The new agreement is not a comprehensive solution to the problem and instrumentalizowanego inspired by Russia separatism in Donbas. Although Russia has not received clear geopolitical concessions, it records the agreement and its ambiguity (...) will certainly be used by Russia as a pretext to ensure that the issues within the competence of the sovereign Ukrainian authorities made the subject of international agreements with the actual subject own political right of veto "- writes the OSW.
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